In this final joint episode of the Macrocast, host Ylan Mui, Managing Director at Penta, alongside co-hosts John Fagan and Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners say their farewells. The Macrocast will no longer continue as a joint production. Instead, John and Brendan will be spearheading its relaunch under the Markets Policy Partners banner.
This episode is not a goodbye but rather a reunion, as Tony Fratto, founder of the Macrocast and Hamilton Place Strategies, now leading communications at Goldman Sachs, joins the conversation.
Reflecting on the journey since its inception in 2019, the panel discusses the economic trials and tribulations over the years, such as the impact of COVID-19, the 2020 election, and conflicts worldwide.
The group also shares their favorite memories and expressions of gratitude to contributors, partners, guests, and listeners.
As the Macrocast concludes its final chapter at Penta, listeners are encouraged to follow Markets Policy Partners for future episodes and can continue to engage with Penta's podcast, "What's At Stake." Ylan, Brendan, John, and Tony conclude with a heartfelt thank you to the supporters of the Macrocast over the past five years and look forward to reconnecting soon
In this final joint episode of the Macrocast, host Ylan Mui, Managing Director at Penta, alongside co-hosts John Fagan and Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners say their farewells. The Macrocast will no longer continue as a joint production. Instead, John and Brendan will be spearheading its relaunch under the Markets Policy Partners banner.
This episode is not a goodbye but rather a reunion, as Tony Fratto, founder of the Macrocast and Hamilton Place Strategies, now leading communications at Goldman Sachs, joins the conversation.
Reflecting on the journey since its inception in 2019, the panel discusses the economic trials and tribulations over the years, such as the impact of COVID-19, the 2020 election, and conflicts worldwide.
The group also shares their favorite memories and expressions of gratitude to contributors, partners, guests, and listeners.
As the Macrocast concludes its final chapter at Penta, listeners are encouraged to follow Markets Policy Partners for future episodes and can continue to engage with Penta's podcast, "What's At Stake." Ylan, Brendan, John, and Tony conclude with a heartfelt thank you to the supporters of the Macrocast over the past five years and look forward to reconnecting soon
Hello everyone and welcome to the Macrocast. I'm your host, elon Mui, a managing director at Penta. My co-hosts are John Fagan and Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners, and today is a bittersweet day because we are all parting ways. This is the last episode of the Macrocast as a joint production. John and Brendan will be taking the wheel after this and relaunching the pod under the Markets Policy Partners banner, so you'll be able to listen to the Macrocast by going to MarketsPolicycom or by searching MarketsPolicy Macrocast in any of your preferred podcast platforms.
Speaker 1:Meanwhile, here at Penta, we are going to be focusing on another one of our podcasts called what's At Stake. That's all about how businesses can navigate our complex world. So today is a fork in the road for all of us, but it's certainly not a goodbye and in fact this is actually a reunion, because Macrocast OG and Godfather Tony Frato is here with us today. He founded the Macrocast in Hamilton Place Strategies, which was the precursor to Penta. He's now leading communications at Goldman Sachs. Everyone welcome, hello, and it is so great to have this one last conversation.
Speaker 2:Altogether, it's so great to have this opportunity. I can't tell you how much I appreciate you. That's me to come on. This is my first time as a guest on the Macrocast. Every time I was on the Macrocast, elon, I was doing what you just did introducing our group and introducing the show, and so I'm really, really thrilled and honored to be joining you for the last episode of this incarnation and, john and Brendan, amazing to see you guys again.
Speaker 2:I was telling someone this morning I was going to be doing the show and it said talking about how it all started, and so it was like kicking around with ideas for a podcast that we should do, and in the meantime, you guys were housed in our offices at Hamilton Place Strategies and we would stand around and talk about what the Fed just did or what the ECB just did or what Elon had just reported on CNBC, and just like stand around and finally we just decided you know what this should be, the podcast? We should just let's record this Us talking about the latest Bernanke comment or Powell comment or what was news, and the macro indicators and what we think about them, and I know it was really meaningful to me. It's really, really great to be here and I'm thrilled that it's going to be in your hands going forward also because I know how much you care about the issues also.
Speaker 3:You're talking about the introduction, up until the point where you had to say the date and he would always just say some absolute one.
Speaker 2:It's like the perfection that Elon did it, you know, because at least you know two months of an Acrocast to get the name of markets policy partners correct in the day. We'll just wonder the other. I would screw up every time.
Speaker 4:You know we got lots of questions about the macrocast over the years. One of the questions that was pretty consistent was how much time do you guys put into preparation for it? And you know when I would tell them that we would have like a five to 10 minute discussion or just send an email around the previous day and essentially jump on and start talking. So I guess you know that was maybe, maybe that's what it sounds like.
Speaker 4:Generally people were surprised and I think that goes back to what you were saying, tony really like the transition from water cooler discussion to podcast was so seamless and we all have worked together so long on this, you know, even through the changing hosts and so forth. But you know the rapport was always there. So and we're just grateful for the opportunity so much fun over the years to work with you all and the great staff at Hamilton Play Strategies and at Penta and and Cleveland and the sound people who are always. You know the few bloopers that that do come through are patiently and and expertly excised each week. So, yeah, huge thanks to the whole crew and staff and everybody behind the scenes that made it work over the years.
Speaker 2:So many terrific guests over the years also.
Speaker 1:One thing that struck me when I joined Penta a year ago and started working on the macrocast and working with you guys is just the level of camaraderie. Right, I mean, obviously the expertise is there. I mean you guys know what you're talking about. You can go deep, you can keep it fun, but the that level of camaraderie really makes the conversation engaging and interesting. And I think that is part of the special sauce that goes into the macrocast and what makes it so much fun for all of us to do and, you know, hopefully for other people to listen to as well.
Speaker 3:The other thing that's been fun to watch is the Hamilton Place strategy, now Penta you know employees that that you kind of volunteered to to help run this, but now so many of them have used that as a platform and now are at various journalistic you know entities. That's been really cool to watch.
Speaker 2:You know, we knew that there was.
Speaker 2:We were always counseling our clients on, you know, on podcasts also.
Speaker 2:They you know a lot of them wanted to do podcasts and have an idea and I always felt you know, elon Elon knows this also you know people when people talk about going on TV, for example, and it helps if you have actually gone on TV, if you prepared for a segment, if you thought about what producers and TV is interested in so that you can go on and be a good guest and what makes a good guest, if you have been someone who goes on TV a lot, you could talk about what's the best way to do it and you do it with credibility.
Speaker 2:When you know we're going to do podcasts, I thought, well, like we should have a podcast First of all. We could maybe, you know, have some of our guests on, but we could even, you know, we could teach them with experience how to be a good podcast guest, how to get to the point, how to do the preparation and be ready to to talk, how to understand that it's a conversation and not. You know you're up your chance to come in and recite everything you've got in your head, you know.
Speaker 3:Totally, because there's so many times where you know we talk about where we're, you know, try to go. But the conversation took us in a totally different you know direction and you learned just to go with it, you know.
Speaker 4:If it was interesting to us, it should probably be interesting to other people, so Right yeah, and the complementary nature I mean obviously the hosts from Tony Brian Elon, it's more than obviously, more than hosting, bringing insights, and you know politics and policy areas that you know Brendan and I are, you know we're more of the finance side of things and so it was always a very complimentary mix. And as you brought up the guests, the fantastic guests, you know, john Dick from Civic Science, I learned something, not just because, like I have, I haven't done any shopping since I got together with my wife 20 years ago.
Speaker 1:And she's thankful for that, john, she's very thankful for that.
Speaker 4:Like learning about shopping and brands and stuff. Obviously, somewhere I always learned a lot from him and Matt Delafano, the Michael Steele, stacey Kerr, the guests from the political on the political side, lauren Smith on, who we've had repeatedly on for supply chain, and a whole host of others.
Speaker 2:Elon, were you a guest before you became a? I?
Speaker 1:don't think that I was. I don't think that I was but that. But you know what One of the fun things has also been to be able to have some of my journalist friends, you know, come on and share their insights and their thoughts. And you know I did not realize sort of the many years and the long history of the macrocast when I started that. You know, this started pre-pandemic and you guys kept the conversation going through, I mean, some really, really dark days.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I'll tell you, look, I will tell you.
Speaker 2:But so even before the pandemic, it was a sometimes the best part of my week, right.
Speaker 2:I was looking forward to doing the macrocast because we get to just, you know, we do get to hang out and talk about things that are that are on our minds and really with great people, and so it was really fun and interesting to do that.
Speaker 2:Going through COVID, where we knew that we were gonna be, you know, get a chance to get together and talk every Friday morning and not just talk about what was going on in the economy, which was seismic, right, I mean the giant COVID response efforts on the fiscal side, what the Fed was doing, all the supply chain issues we all became experts in supply chains and ports and you know well-versed and all those things but also just to catch up with each other.
Speaker 2:It was a really good, you know great thing to do, just to be able to see like, where were you know these guys were in Massachusetts or in DC and how you're coping and dealing with things. And, as we all know, going through COVID, we're all dealing with that about how to, how to stay connected to the people you care about, and that was hard to do. So it was really I know I was speaking for myself personally very fulfilling to be able to get to do that at the end of the week and to have good, rational discussions about what was going on in the world from a macroeconomic perspective.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I remember the day it was a Friday that the first case in Montgomery County of COVID hit and you guys had protocols and you had decided, okay, we're not gonna work from the office. But the three of us decided we'll come in and, you know, film it at the podcast, and just downtown was empty. It was spooky and we had no idea exactly what was in front of us.
Speaker 2:Yeah, amazing things to talk about, though I mean it was. You know there were the things that were important to us and just judge it and seeing things that we'd probably never, you know, that we had never seen before from an economic standpoint, but also those things where we were also educating each other, and you know. So then we get to go have that conversation with each other and then go. I would you know I've always been a really good at stealing from the best thoughts and ideas from from these guys. Whatever I, whatever the, whatever things they taught me, I would go and then use it with my, with our clients, and they would always think I'm a little, I was a little bit smarter than I actually was.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it was kind of amazing. I haven't gone back and listened to it, but you know, because we do it every week, so we have a recording of what we thought you know was happening said just how much everything changed from week to week. It was pretty fascinating.
Speaker 1:You know, what's interesting is what we'll get into some some of the Highlights of the macro cast and and the stats a little bit later in this episode. But the most downloaded episode was from September 4th 2020, um, when at the time, we thought that might be the end of unprecedented fiscal support. But little did we know back then that that was actually just the beginning of unprecedented fiscal support for the economy.
Speaker 2:I remember it, I remember it well, elon, because it still boggles the mind that that the trump administration Would not take the gift of 2.4 trillion dollars in fiscal spending that, nancy polis, he was willing to give the opposition party at that time.
Speaker 1:I still think it's like it was just, uh, mind boggling to me that, that period of time where I was a reporter still in in 2020, but there was just the crushing amount of fiscal policy debates, political debate, legislation that was. That was sort of moving through, wending its way through congress. I was working something like 17 hours a day, I mean to the point where I actually Developed health issues, because there was so much going on, there was so much to cover.
Speaker 2:It was a firehose and not just the volume, but it was all consequential.
Speaker 1:Yes, yes, yeah, yes, absolutely, absolutely the other biggest listened episode.
Speaker 3:Someone accidentally clicked the explicit content warning and that was. There wasn't the explicit content, but everyone turned in to see what people did, as we said.
Speaker 4:They figured oh, this is, this is finally the episode where tony melts down, starts hurling just a tide of obscenities.
Speaker 3:Oh man.
Speaker 2:But the problem is I could never really do that because I know some of the people who do listen to you know we're regular listeners of the macrocassets. We could never quite go that far with them.
Speaker 1:Even, even on the side of the, the, the journalism wall, I don't know that we would go to the full e, you know, for a podcast rating.
Speaker 4:Yeah, well, we always. I think we were always, we were always pretty disciplined in the way that you know whether it was Covid, whether it was the us-china trade fight, the election in 2020, so many twists and turns in the road. You know the inflation spike, the massive, and you know ramp up intensification of, of, of partisan battling in washington dc. You know the macrocast is we, we always focused on the substance, focused on the. You know on the on the Markets, on the economy, on the impact, always going back to that, and you know steering away from the extremes of. You know Editorializing that. You know you can, you can get plenty of other places. That's some other, that's some other podcast.
Speaker 3:Yeah, opinions about what should be happening, but that's not what this is about. What we want to focus is on Okay, if this is going to happen, what? What does that mean for both policy and for financial markets?
Speaker 2:That's right. If you look, if you got, if you go back and you do go listen. I recommend everyone do this, go back and listen to all the old. If you go back and listen to you see, like we make we do make lots of predictions we're never afraid to have a Fundamental view on what was coming. It's like I always felt like that's what we're here to do, like, say what you think is going to happen.
Speaker 2:You could bump into people on the street. He will tell you, on the one hand, this, on the other hand that. But we should, we should be willing to say what we think is Going to happen and why. And it's okay to be wrong and you know I'm going to be wrong on a lot of this stuff but the feedback I would get from people who were listening is they always appreciated that. I appreciate that like they like the, the easy conversation we have with each other and and the insights and the different places we are coming from we're bringing to that discussion. And I'll say also on a, you know, and I would hear that I would hear that from people who just like, really really like to listen to.
Speaker 2:Obviously it was always nice to hear from people said, hey, like that thing, you said you know you're, you know John, I went off on that thing. Can I, can you could? Can you tell me what you meant by that or what you thought by that? Yeah, yeah, you know, it's just like, why did you feel that? Like why do you feel that?
Speaker 2:And I had, so it would spur other discussions that would happen and for people listen to it and at least of which, by the way, again, just like, very personally, my son, who you guys, you know, brendan and John know, and he's like he did spend a little bit of time learning at their knees also, we're tired and responsible for his, all of his success. Yeah, he's, he's, he's over to be more again now, doing really well, but, like you know, my son would listen to the podcast and we would have conversations about what we discussed in the podcast. And you know, and he's, he's a student of, of macroeconomic issues and monetary policy also, and it's, and I love to talk about it. So it was always, that was always a nice, you know, a nice feature for me also.
Speaker 3:In that when he would send us the write-ups After a week, we said let's just cut out the middleman, there's no editing, just just send it.
Speaker 1:Is a smart kid my my father also listened to the podcast and my my dad's a doctor he's he's not in in finance or economics at all but he he texted me after he listened. He said, wow, those guys are real experts. I said yeah, dad.
Speaker 4:Fooled another one Now. That's great to hear.
Speaker 1:No, but it's. It's interesting, toni, that you mentioned predictions and of course, especially considering all the twists and turns in the economy over the past few years, any prediction that that anyone would make is certainly to turn out wrong at some point in time. But I did pull up a couple of stats to try to help us frame. You know where we were and where we Are now, and I pulled it up from 2019, which is when the first episode of the macrocast at least appeared on spotify. So that's as far back, as far back as we went. But the rate of inflation, the cpi inflation, in may 2019 Month over month Was zero. I mean, I was just stunned when I saw that because of all of the, I mean obviously we know the inflation that we've seen over the past post-pandemic, etc. And now just trying to think about folks being upset about a 0.3% month-over-month increase, but, man, zero in May 2019. Who would have thought?
Speaker 2:at that time. That's amazing. Now let me do remember that we remember all those days of you know we used to talk about we spent a lot of time, even on the show, talking about deflation, and you know I mean think about the decade-long longer than that you know challenges of how do we get to the Fed's target rate from the other direction.
Speaker 1:Will we ever hit two?
Speaker 2:Yeah, there were questions. Do we even know how to create inflation? It turns out we do, but it took a lot to get there.
Speaker 1:The unemployment rate in May 2019, kind of similar to today 3.6% in 2019, now 3.7%. But the payroll number May 2019, 38,000 jobs were created and in the latest month now, 353,000 jobs were created. So similar to the Fed Funds Rate Discussion. Tony, I remember thinking you know, can we just get to a sustainable 200,000 jobs per month? And that's when we know the economy has really recovered from the global financial crisis. And now we're at 353 and wondering is this ever going to come down?
Speaker 2:Yeah, we went through a period, elon, didn't we, where there's sort of like sort of you know, metronomic regularity on somewhere around that $200,000 a month. Right, 200,000 jobs a month was just pretty. It was pretty steady and regular for a good while.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that was supposed to be the indicator that the global financial crisis was over Slow recovery we had finally made it.
Speaker 2:The stock market would rip if we only created 200,000 jobs right now.
Speaker 3:We're worried about too many now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, exactly the opposite problem. Speaking of stocks, the S&P on May 17, 2019 was 2008,. Five nine. Now it's 4,981. Well, this is when I check, so you know, don't hold me to these numbers, but we're talking about almost five right People. Talking about S&P 5,000.
Speaker 2:We're at S&P 5,000. We're above it and yeah, and we should be eyeing up, you know dial 40,000, right, yeah, it's like right there, and it's amazing.
Speaker 4:Yeah, the Euro stocks 600, I think is at a record as well. The Japanese Nekate recaptured. It's like late 80s Right peak, and you know we have been. We want to allude to our record. We're certainly not right about everything, but we've expressed a lot of skepticism about the situation in China over the years and you know the difficulties of that legacy property overhang. Plus, you know the pressure from the US trade policy, which you know we expected the Biden administration to carry on and they did in a very, you know, even more targeted and perhaps consequential way than how it started under the Trump administration. The Shanghai composite is essentially flat. Over the time we've done the macrocast. In fact it may be a little bit down.
Speaker 2:Amazing.
Speaker 3:What about the dollar, John?
Speaker 4:The dollar is now at. So it has been at multi. It's been riding pretty high. The dollar is off of its multi-year highs. Let me just pull up the chart so I'm not totally mischaracterizing it. But the idea of you know the dollar has had a lot of you know predictions of its demise over various cycles. But you know, with the US economic outperformance over the last few years, not a big surprise that we hit, really you know, generational highs for the dollar in the for the late 2022 era and we've been kind of sideways. But on a plateau, you look at the Japanese yen, it's 150. We did a macrocast where I did a little tourist bit for the Japanese tourism bureau. Go to Japan, it's cheaper than ever.
Speaker 3:Especially now with our rate differential. You can put money in a money market fund and get 5% Most of the rest of the world. It's still pretty well.
Speaker 2:I try to leave those predictions to our chief economist and I will point macrocast. Listeners to yesterday's Greg Paul I'm really terrific Profile and discussion of Yon and Yon's economic outlooks. That's a one promotional thing I'll do, but it's worth paying attention to Yon. He's his outlook. On all of those on the economy and the Fed right now, I've been pretty good.
Speaker 3:Yon was tops on our list of when he would come through town, and you always gained a lot of insights.
Speaker 1:Yeah, tony, I think you said earlier maybe it was even before we started recording that the one person you can retweet now is Yon Hatsy. That's really not a bad strategy for having a good time.
Speaker 2:I get to retweet him and, more importantly, I get to work with him and spend time with him. He's not just a economist, he's a really wonderful person and great colleague and partner, and so I'm the luckiest guy that I get to work with him.
Speaker 1:Well, there have been a lot of good times on the macrocast. I'm wondering if you guys have any favorite memories or favorite moments that you would like to share. Either that happened during the recording or even in preparation for the recording.
Speaker 3:I always look forward to our monthly calls with John Dick, both because he's a great guy and fun, but the insights that civic science had were always fascinating and always provide a lot of insight because they're very forward-looking.
Speaker 2:I am going to echo that. I hope John listens to this and knows that we're sharing a lot with him. But it was always great with John for two reasons. One, what Brendan just said his insights were really unique and different, come from a different place from where we are and where we spend all of our time, because he can get down to micro levels and sectors and how consumers are doing on what they think about a whole range of things.
Speaker 2:John and I it's probably 15 years ago now built the Economic Sentiment Index. That's now a part of PENTA. That was a partnership between us at HPS and Civic Science and he and I actually go back as friends for a long time, back into the 90s. John and I have known each other so it was an old home show for me when John would come on and we could talk. So that's one reason, like my old friend, his great insights. But more important than all of that, like even up the playing field with Brendan and John, who are both Boston fans. I need another Pittsburgh fan. I need a Pittsburgh guy on there with me so we can even things up.
Speaker 3:I love when Pittsburgh people get together because you go back to Pittsburgh, so the first 10 minutes before we're getting ready was really you guys just talking about places that John and I had no idea were.
Speaker 4:Obviously, we spent a lot of time over the years talking about the Fed. I always love Brian Odeon essay I'm sure that he's listening to this.
Speaker 4:He was always. He was always not apologizing for, but always explaining to us the rhythms of the Fed and getting our understanding sharpened further. He's one of the best repeat guests we always had and a real friend of the pod. I also remember it's maybe not one particular instance because there were many instances but when Tony would get on a rant it was always. I looked back at some of the macrocast episodes and there was a title of one of them that was you can't outlaw stupid Immediately. That was that title was pulled from Tony rant. It would be that that would always be the highlight of the episode when he would get on a soapbox and give us a soliloquy on a particular topic. Always tons of fun. And lastly you mentioned it in your note pre-show notes you've honed Brendan's dedication to the macrocast was so strong that he did an episode while driving at 85 miles an hour of route 95. And I figured, as a Massachusetts driver, cleaver or Claude would have to be editing out a bunch of F bombs.
Speaker 1:That's it. That would be the e-show. Yes, and. I gave a real time update on gas prices. Yeah, that I loved, so that's right. The roving reporter Right. It was so funny because I think we were discussing actually intended to discuss gas prices during the show and so, and. But as, as Brendan was driving, he actually had to pull over and get gas during the middle of our taping and so we could, we could have him report right there and what, what the price of the pump was yeah.
Speaker 2:Did you report the prices from the pump, Brendan?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I got out of my truck. I was out of gas, I didn't make a choice. You know I go. Are you filling up gas?
Speaker 1:But like right now, and it's, and it's funny I have to remember sometimes that I'm no longer in TV and so folks can't see what I'm seeing. You know, as we talk to each other over zoom, and so we had to sort of describe it during the episode, which I thought was was both both very par for the course in terms of the macrocast, but also, again, as you pointed out, john, shows the dedication and just how much fun we've had doing this over the years.
Speaker 4:Absolutely. And I can't fail to mention, you know I was looking. I don't want to speak for Brendan, but I was looking for, you know, relatively mild recession to be hitting at the end of last year, but a recession nonetheless. And then you know, being set straight by Elon, that you know, no, no recession can possibly exist simultaneously with the era's tour.
Speaker 1:Yes, so when Tony was the host, you guys would talk sports, and now that I've come on, you know there's many more Taylor Swift references that.
Speaker 2:Nothing wrong with that, nothing wrong with that. You mentioned Bri. I just have to say, like, definitely I was going to say, but Brian was a great guest and a great friend and also I'm going to just going to say the best radio voice, right, like the best.
Speaker 3:Yes.
Speaker 2:That that great Bri voice was just built for podcasts, and so I loved having him.
Speaker 3:loved having him on hearing him as well, especially as a Liverpool fan, to be able to need a loan about the woes of Chelsea.
Speaker 1:That's good, all right. So we talked about the, the predictions that you all have made, some of which came true, some of which did not come to pass over the years. In the macrocast, any predictions for 2024. Now that we're, you know, two months in recession, no recession, no landing, crash landing.
Speaker 2:Tony may not be able to answer this one I endorse, I endorse, I endorse Yon. Yon has it in a, in a steady, you know, 15%, which is he, you know he says is about like at any at any time. It's, you know you should think of it as around 15%, and so that's where he is and I have no reason to disagree with Yon.
Speaker 4:Yeah, we've been looking for a slowdown, but we've been wrong, and you know. But you know that that, in classic Wall Street fashion, that just makes us, makes me more stubborn about my call.
Speaker 4:I wasn't wrong, I was early, but we are looking for a. We are looking, I'm looking for a slowdown, but not a, you know, a gentler slowdown than than I'd expected and but at the same time, we think that inflation, I think inflation is going to stay sticky and and the Fed is going to underwhelm the market even from here, I think that the odds are going to drift toward a July start to the rate cut cycle, despite the fact that that's, you know, in the thick of the campaign season and we get into. We get into a time over the summer where you know the campaign is it's very uncertain. Obviously, lots of you know a wide divergence between the potential outcomes and it's a, you know, a volatility inducing uncertainty. You know not, not, not dramatic, not market crashy. You know type type issues, but something for the market to really, you know, have a have a tough time to see, see, you know, to get conviction on what the world is going to look like on the other side of that Tuesday in November.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and I think the the geopolitical pressures on the supply chain aren't going anywhere and that's going to kind of keep seeping its way into the economy and especially on inflation Not that it's going to spike, but it's going to kind of stay in this sticky, confusing area, which is going to make things hard for the Fed, especially as we then get into the election season, where you don't want to be seen to be favoring one one candidate or the other.
Speaker 4:Yeah, and on the election, you know you have to have a view right, and so the polls are all over the place and you know our baseline expectation it is does end up being a Biden second term, but the Democrats lose the Senate and but retake the House and honestly that is, I think, a very market friendly outcome. You know, having a, you know, a Biden second term with divided Congress is not necessarily something that would be a huge uplift to market spirits, all else being equal, but is, you know, is far from a worst case scenario and I think would be, you know, something that the markets could easily digest and start, you know, and focus right back on fundamentals, and you know and and and obviously earnings, as we've seen this week, which can be extremely propulsive to risk sentiment, in particularly from our friends at NVIDIA.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I think this AI thing seems like a fad. I would. I would ignore it.
Speaker 1:Okay. Well, so our listeners can find out whether or not AI will be a fad by listening to the Mechercast under the markets policy partners banner. In the meantime, I do want to wrap our episode today with just sending out a whole host of thank yous to folks, so please bear with me. Obviously, tony, thank you so much for coming back on enjoying us as our host emeritus Also want to thank Brian DeAngeles, matt McDonald and all the other partners at Penta who have participated in the macrocast and have hosted over the past few years. Thank you so much to Claude Jennings and Cleavon Davis, our amazing audio and sound engineering team. Also want to say thank you to the raft of Penta associates and directors who have helped make this podcast a reality every single week over the past few years. So I'll name a couple of them Julia Desirega, nicole Beckman, will Newell, lizzie Johnson, brooke Van Horn, emma Sunken, allie Battelle, bridget Whitman-Tune, catherine Johnston, jack Eichner, carly Lerner, and of course, there are so many wonderful Penta alums that have moved on to other things. We appreciate all of the work they did on the macrocast as well.
Speaker 1:Thank you to our regular guests We've mentioned John Dick and Brian Odeon-Acenne and, of course, thank you to all of our listeners for sticking with us through thick and through thin over the years. That does it for us at the macrocast. Please follow Market's Policy Partners by going to their website at marketspolicycom or by searching Market's Policy Macrocast in any of your preferred podcast platforms. You can also follow us at Penta, on X, at PentaGRP or on LinkedIn if you want to try out what's At Stake. Thank you everyone for listening today and for every week over the past five years. We'll talk to you soon.